The market is shrinking.

What the forecast showed

On 25 August 2026 Kommersant published an estimate by Runet Rating: by the end of the year the market for digital and marketing services in Russia will shrink by 1–3% or, at best, stay at last year's level. For an industry that grew by 29% in 2024 and by a further 8.7% in 2025 to ₽464 billion, this is the first halt in several years.

The reasons are named directly: the high key interest rate, falling margins at clients, the transfer of government contracts to in-house resources and a shift in consumer demand. Then there is the money. Payment deferrals of 60–90 days and post-payment instead of an advance have become the market norm: agencies are crediting their clients, and that is also part of the downturn, just not visible in turnover.

Who is cutting and what they cut

By industry. The public sector cut spending hardest — minus 23% year on year, although the market expected the opposite because of the upcoming State Duma elections. Next come the chemical industry (minus 13.9%), publishing (minus 8.5%), metallurgy (minus 7.9%) and sport (minus 6.1%).

By service. The first under the knife are branding, creative strategy and influencer marketing — minus 15–20%. SMM and content promotion have slumped by 20–30%. In other words, everything where the result is measured in reach and “awareness” rather than leads is being cut.

The clients' logic is clear: when money is expensive, people are only willing to pay for what comes back. This is not a crisis of marketing; it is a crisis of marketing without numbers.

What this means for businesses, not agencies

A downturn in the services market does not mean there are fewer customers. It means competitors are reducing their presence — on social media, in content, in image advertising. Meanwhile the auctions in Yandex Direct and VK Ads are not emptying: performance budgets are actually growing, because that is where the money from “image” is being moved. Hence the rise in cost per lead that everyone is noticing.

The result is a double picture. Where leads are counted, it is crowded and expensive. Where reach was counted, it is empty. The winner is whoever can count leads in the channels the others have abandoned.

How to restructure the budget

Step 1. Measurement before cuts. Before cutting, you need to know exactly what brings leads. Goals in Yandex Metrica for forms and calls, call tracking, end-to-end analytics at least at the level of “channel → lead → deal”. Without this, cutting the budget turns into a lottery: what gets removed is whatever is easiest to stop, not what fails to work. If there is no measurement, start with diagnosing the funnel, not with cutting.

Step 2. Split channels into three baskets. The first brings leads at an acceptable price: leave it alone and strengthen it if possible. The second brings leads but at a high price: optimise rather than switch off. The third is not measured at all: either set up measurement or close it. Usually the third basket is exactly those “image” line items that the market is cutting first.

Step 3. Do not switch off what is cheaper to bring back than to relaunch. SEO, content on the site, the mailing list, reviews — these are cumulative assets. A six-month pause sets them back a year: rankings go, the list goes cold. You can slow the pace; stopping entirely is the most expensive decision available.

Step 4. Revisit contracts. Post-payment and deferrals are the new norm, and agencies are ready for it. But the price is flexibility: a long fixed-fee contract is replaced by short iterations with clear results for each. That benefits both sides, provided the result is defined in leads rather than “activities”.

Where costs are rising and what to do about it

The cost of acquisition is rising because budgets are concentrating in performance channels. Three answers that work. First, narrow the keywords and geography to what genuinely converts: broad campaigns in an expensive auction are the first to go into the red. Second, raise the site's conversion rate: at the same cost per click, a lead gets cheaper as conversion grows, and this is the only lever that does not depend on the auction. Third, take the channels that are emptying: your own content, local promotion, reviews, mailings to your list — everything competitors are stopping right now.

In short

• The digital services market will shrink by 1–3% in 2026 for the first time in several years.
• Image, creative, influencer marketing and SMM are being cut — minus 15–30%; performance budgets are growing.
• Cost per lead is rising because money is concentrating in auctions, not because demand is falling.
• Cut only after measuring: three baskets of channels, and do not stop cumulative assets.
• The main lever against an expensive click is site conversion and the channels competitors have abandoned.

Frequently asked questions

Should marketing be cut at all in a downturn?

Cut what is unmeasured — yes. Cut channels with a clear cost per lead — no: competitors will take their place, and coming back will cost more.

Why is cost per lead rising if the market is falling?

Money from image formats is flowing into performance auctions. Demand for clicks is growing faster than the number of clicks.

What to do with SMM if everyone is cutting it?

Move it to measurable tasks: service, retention, repeat sales. Nobody is paying for reach right now, but everyone is paying for a customer base.

Is post-payment normal?

The market has come to it, and agencies work under these conditions. In return, ask for short iterations with results in leads rather than an annual fixed fee.